While I was drafting the post on my portfolio’s first half performance for the year, I had a few queries popping in my mind.
How had my core counters performed over the past few years?
What was my hit rate?
On average, how long had I held on to them?
So I decided to crunch some numbers and see if I can get any insight out of these data.
A fast recap
I decided to revamp my portfolio at the end of 2014 after a review which resulted in new goal and strategies. So sold counters that did not align to my new strategies and bought counters which I think will help me achieve the goal. As written in this post on the morphing of my core portfolio, it wasn’t as static as I wanted it to be and more than half the core holdings in the initial purchase are no longer there.
What are core holdings?
These are counters which occupied at least 5% of my portfolio. I have spent relative more time on most of them and hence aim to hold them for a longer period.
Crunching the numbers
The story behind the numbers
In total, 16 counters (considering Food Empire as a single holding) have appeared in my core holdings since I revamped my portfolio. As seen from the first table, there was an element of luck in my strong portfolio performance for 2016 and 2017. If not for 3-bagger achieved by Best World, the core holdings would only return a miserable 12%. Having said that, I am glad that 11 out of the 16 counters are in the positive territory with 7 of them returning at least 20%.
From the second table, it can be seen that the average return from counters which I held for at least 2 years did much better than those that those that are less than one year. Once again, this shows that you must give time for the counters to reflect its performance. Of course, I can also argue that those more than 2 years did better because they were bought when market were much cheaper. Could be and I will definitely review this list again in the next two years to see if time held matters significantly.
There were a few reasons for my divestment of the 7 counters listed.
- Best World – I was unsure of its direct selling structure in its China market and do not like the decline of its Taiwan market.
- Micromechanics – The price went up too fast with my limited reading of its business. Hence, decided to take profit. This remains one of my heartaches.
- Starhill Global – I decided to re-direct money to other REITs which I am more confident in after seeing its continue decline in its DPU for many quarters and with its continued struggle of office occupancy.
- Food Empire – I was uncertain on its impairment of Cafe Bene. With the uncertainty cleared, I have re-entered it.
- 800 Super – Its WTE plant took longer to bring in the cash to reduce its large debt. Do not like its decreasing margin over the past few quarters
- Nordic – I was too impulsive with this. Put in too much with limited knowledge of its business. Decided to divest it after the lack of my interest to find out more about it.
A multi-bagger can make a big difference in the performance. I have no control of the market’s mood but I have control of the choice of good businesses. So going forward, I will continue to hold on to a basket of good businesses and monitor their progress.
I believe that lady luck will come and find them one day.