In the previous post, I wrote about overall performance for this year. This post will talk about the individual counters performance.
Top 5 Gainers vs Bottom 5 Losers
With a negative return this year, it is obvious that the losers won the battle this year. The positive is that I could still find 4 counters that have at least a 4 digits return. Here are some short notes on the above list.
The Gainers
iFAST is the star player of the year with high double digit growth in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of the current financial year. No change in my view points of the company since I first bought it and am still excited about its future potential.
Expecting an upturn in vehicles inspection from 2018/2019 and 90% dividend payout policy was my initial reason to buy VICOM. But recent COE prices seem to suggest that it might take a while longer. Nonetheless, the increase in dividend has worked positively for me and will continue to hold the shares using CPFIS.
Starbucks had a strong end to the year after it announced a strong Q3 results. I am getting more used to the larger swing in share price of US market. Hence, it might swing the other way if Starbucks report a weaker guidance in the next quarter. Nonetheless, I bought it for its China growth story and I think the story is still valid for the long term.
The only REIT in my top 5 gainers is Mapletree Commercial Trust. Which means MCT is my best performing REIT for the year! Wasn’t expecting that especially when its distribution has been pretty flat for the year.
Ulta Beauty pipped Raffles Medical Group on the very last day. Looking through my record, I have coincidentally added Ulta on a quarterly basis. From the initial price of US$207 in March, I have added more at US$255 in June, US$272 in September and US$255, bringing my average price to US$236. Its price breached the US$300 in November before plummeting in December due to a weaker growth guidance. At current PE of 22 and PEG of 1.1, I think it is fairly valued but am hopeful that the management can continue to do their good work and grow the company.
The Losers
Top on the list is UMS which I have bought for its dividend. With a reduction in that latest quarterly dividend and drop in its cash level, I had divested 3/4 of my initial stake. I could have probably reduce the loss if I followed my uneasiness of its lower revenue in its Q2 results. Well, have to move on with the loss. Am still holding a small amount to participate in the company’s transition.
Together with UMS, the other significant loss is JEP holdings. I was punting for its turnaround but it did not quite happen. It might still happen but I will participate indirectly through UMS stake. The key mistake made for JEP was the slightly higher quantity that I had taken for a punt. Hence, the loss should have been less if I was more discipline.
Valuetronics plunged after it announced a weaker 2018Q4 due to temporarily smaller order for its smart lighting from its key CE customer, Signify Lighting. Since then, it has reported two strong quarters for its ICE segment and stable numbers for its CE segment. The latest quarter earning was affected by a disruption of its Danshui Plant due to weather. Overall, there is no change in my reasons in purchasing the counter and hence I will continue to hold on to my stake.
Food Empire has dropped by about 20% since it has reported a weaker Q2 bottom line. I am still positive about the mid- to long-term prospect of the company with its continual growth in its revenue in the various market that it is in. So while it does not look nice at the moment, I am expecting a better performance in the coming two years.
While Starbucks and Ulta Beauty made it to the gainer list, my first international stock in my loser list is Arista Networks. The only international counter in my core positions lost a fifth of its value. First bought in May, I have accumulated quite a bit (maybe too fast) of this network disruptor. As mentioned in this post, key reason of my purchase is my perception of a talented management and their track record. I still feel the same way and believe that the company will continue to do well going forward.
Performance of Core Positions
The above shows the performance of my core positions for the year. Most appeared in the earlier tables and unfortunately more on the loser side than gainer side. A really poor year, with only 3 out of 11 counters having positive return for the year.
But I would again like to highlight the importance of not just looking at a one-year performance, whether for portfolio return or company’s business or individual counter’s return. As seen from the above table, the return of the counters that I had held for at least 2 years and more shows a pretty much different picture than the one shown for this year’s performance.
Of course, I would do better if I have divested all the counters at the beginning of the year and just held cash this year. But well, that’s hindsight which unfortunately I do not possess. So I am happy to see that most of the counters that I have held beyond 2 years are showing positive return. And am quietly confident that this list will only become greener in years to come.
Towards Financial Independence 