Crystal Ball “zun bo”?

As I felt the emotion during the turbulent market in 2018, I decided to take out my crystal ball on 18 September to see how the counters will do towards the end of 2021.

Of course  lots of things have happened since then. I have revamped my portfolio, gotten into US market, and of course COVID-19 pandemic.  Nonetheless, I though it would be fun to review my predictions and see how far they are from what is it now. I am going to reproduce my writing below and briefly evaluate the prediction.

What I saw then? What actually happened?

Counter	What I saw then? What actually happened?
Food Empire	With the completion of its second ingredient plant in India in 2020 and its continued expansion to IndoChina and hopefully a new country, Russia and neighbouring region now contributes less than 50% of Food Empire‘s revenue. Share price would be at least $1.5. The completion of second ingredient plant was delayed and only commenced in Q2 2021. Its revenue was affected by the pandemic but cost-cutting measure allows it to increase its net profit. Core markets Russia and CIS regions are affected more, while SEA sees a substantial increase in revenue. Currently, the stock is priced at $0.79, -47% off my prediction.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust	Retail malls are not dead and Punggol Waterway Point is infused into Frasers Centrepoint Trust. 14 years of continual increase in declared dividend at $0.14. Share price at $2.5 for a yield of 5.5%. Bingo on infusion of Waterway Point and surprises on the acquisition of PGIM Asia’s Retail Fund. Definitely affected by the pandemic but on its recovery. Trailing DPU at 11.9 cents, providing a current yield of 5.0% now. Currently, the stock is priced at $2.35, just -6.0% off my prediction.
iFAST	Breakeven in iFAST China business and continued growth in Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia business. The group looks to list IFast Greater China entities on the HK market. Share price would be at least $2. iFAST China has not broken even yet, though top line growth is promising. The pandemic resulted in elevated growth in Singapore and Malaysia. While there is sign of slower growth in the latest quarter, the upcoming eMPF should give it a booster from 2023 onwards. Currently, the stock is priced at $8.72, +340% off my prediction!
Parkwaylife Reit	Parkwaylife REIT continues to recycle its Japan properties while obtaining favourable rental revision for Gleneagles Hospital. Continue to increase its dividend to $0.14 and share price trades at $2.8 for a 5% yield. As expected, Parkwaylife REIT continues to recycle its Japan properties and recently it managed to renew its master lease for another 20 years for Singapore Hospitals. It wasn’t affected by pandemic and trailing DPU stands at $0.141, close to what I expected. What I did not expect was how much premium investors are willing to pay for it and current yield is only about 3%! Currently, the stock is priced at $4.86, +74% off my prediction.
Raffles Medical Group	RafflesHospital Extension, RafflesHospital Chongqing, RafflesHospital Shanghai are all fully operational and contribute significantly to Raffles Medical top and bottom lines. With the success execution of RafflesHospital Chongqing and Shanghai, it is looking into building more Hospitals in China. Share price would reflect its new outlook and each share should be at least $3. RafflesHospital Extension, RafflesHospital Chongqing are fully operational. RafflesHospital Shanghai just opened after delay due to Covid. The group was initially affected by the pandemic due to decreased foreign patient. Also start-up cost resulted in muted net profit growth. But the involvement in the vaccination and testing programme for Covid have allowed it to report a very strong year this year. Currently, the stock is priced at $1.44, -52% off my prediction.
UMS	Successful turning around JEP and increasing demand for chips from 2021 contributes to revenue and net profit growth of UMS. With a 8 cents dividend, share price trades at $1.6 for a dividend yield of 5%. It was on its way to turn around JEP when the pandemic hit. However, the demand for chips since 2020 contributed to its revenue and net profit growth. To allow financial flexibility, it has reduced dividend to 5 cents. Currently, the stock is priced at $1.71, +6.9% off my prediction.
Valuetronics	Continued demand in IOT and a larger scope of work from existing automotive clients, Valuetronics continue to raise its dividend to HK$0.36 (about SG$0.063). At a dividend yield of 5%, share price would be at $1.2. Valuetronics was impacted by the US-China trade war. To its credit, it has tried to manoeuvre around it by renting and building new plant in Vietnam but it still causes it to lose certain US customers. As such dividend has been decreased to HK$0.21. Management has also made known that the impact of losing US customers will be felt in FY2022. Currently, the stock is priced at $0.605, -50% off my prediction.
Vicom	Up cycle for vehicle inspection as more vehicles are more than 3 years old. New regulation from LTA that requires hire-purchase vehicles to be checked twice yearly. VICOM declares dividend of $0.40. At a yield of 6%, share trades at $6.6 (adjusted $1.65) Vicom went beyond $9 before its 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. While the vehicle inspection was not affected by the pandemic, the same cannot be said about its non-vehicle inspection. However, things look to be back at about 80-90% pre-covid level. Currently, the stock is priced at $2.03, +23% off my prediction.

So “zun bo”?

Obviously, I am totally off the mark. With the exception of FCT and UMS, where my prediction is within 10%, the rest are off by 23% to 340%!

However, what is interesting is if I have bought all of the above counters at equal weighting and held it till today, I would have obtain a pretty good return. Average return of the above portfolio over the past 3 years is 122%, that’s an annualised return of 30% which is better than what I am getting! Having said that, I like how I manage my portfolio now and also the above return is primarily driven by iFAST. So even if I am able to turn back the clock, I would still do what I have done with my portfolio.

This forecasting exercise is rather fun for me. So I am thinking of doing it with my counters in the Platinum to Silver tiers of my current portfolio. I should be able to find some time towards the end of the of year to do it.